January 7, 2026
As part of our long-standing tradition, we are delighted to introduce our latest annual flagship report "Foresight 2026: Roland Berger China Annual Trends Report" (hereafter referred to as "Report") at the beginning of 2026. Based on our long-term observations and extensive research conducted by our experts across various sectors, this report provides trend analysis and in-depth insights into key industries, such as Automotive, Civil Economics, Consumer Goods and Retail, Health, Energy, Industrial Products and Services, and Technology. Additionally, this year's report delves into several major hot topics, including China's potential unleashed in a new world order, artificial intelligence, Chinese companies' international expansion, transaction and investor services, new quality productive forces, and sustainability, aiming to stimulate thought and provide valuable insights to industry stakeholders.
Hot Topics
AI in Asia – Quo vadis?
The landscape of artificial intelligence (AI) in Asia is rapidly evolving, with 2025 marking a turning point due to the rise of Chinese language models. While Asia has been somewhat quieter in the AI arena over the past few years, significant advancements are now emerging. Beyond China, most Asian economies are technology takers, and very pragmatically adopting relevant use cases, with an over-emphasis on digital marketing applications. While there has been a massive increase in interest in AI, especially Generative AI (GenAI), it is only starting to make its way into the industry. The next wave of transformation is the integration of AI into core operations such as R&D, manufacturing, and supply chain management.
The 'Go Global' journey of Chinese companies: From scale expansion to high-quality globalization
- High-quality globalization requires companies to elevate their operational and managerial capabilities to a new level.
- Building a truly "global company" demands focus on six key elements for success:
1) Full leverage of strategic endowments and advantages; 2) Optimized utilization of global advantageous resources; 3) Localization of products and services; 4) Industry-leading and globally consistent management and rule systems; 5) Customized management and control models across regions; 6) Agile decision-making capabilities to swiftly respond to frontline market demands
The trend of globalization has deeply penetrated China's core industrial sectors: the electronics and electrical industry has established a comprehensive global network; the automotive sector's export scale has risen to the largest in the world; China's unique retail formats are rapidly expanding into emerging markets such as Southeast Asia; and domestic beauty brands have successfully entered Paris and other leading international hubs. The year 2026, marking the launch of the "15th Five-Year Plan," is neither the starting point nor the end of Chinese companies' "Go Global" journey. Rather, it represents a critical juncture at which various industries as a whole are shifting from large-scale overseas expansion to high-quality globalization.
Top companies have taken the lead in completing strategic upgrades, shifting from the traditional model of "In China, For Global" to a "Born Global" native approach with an inherently global ambition and planning. The evolution path of Chinese companies' global competitiveness is clear: They are moving beyond the initial stages of exporting capacity, products and services, towards a breakthrough leap into the higher form of brand globalization. Their core objective is transforming from simply "going abroad" to firmly "taking root" in overseas markets.
Turning the corner: Value reconfiguration fuels China's next M&A leap
- Domestic M&A and consolidation regain momentum amid industrial upgrading
- Adjustments to MNCs' China operations create carve‑out opportunities
- Chinese companies' accelerated overseas expansion drives new investment and capital partnerships
In 2025, China's investment and M&A market experienced a rapid recovery and underwent a profound structural transformation. In the first half of the year, the total value of M&A transactions exceeded US 170 bn, marking a year-on-year surge of 45% and demonstrating a positive market response. This growth reflects not only a rebound in volume, but also the increasing dominance of strategic M&A underpinned by deep industrial logic. Strategic transactions initiated by real economy companies in partnership with long-term capital became increasingly prominent. These deals focus on technology integration, industry chain security and market leadership, accounting for a significantly higher proportion than previous years.
Similarly, the exit side also witnessed a pivotal shift. Hong Kong's IPO market experienced a banner year, while the A-share market showed steady improvement. Together, they provided smooth exit channels for earlier investments and helped restore confidence in the "investment – exit – reinvestment" cycle.
Notably, private equity funds saw a marked increase in both the number of IPO exits and the level of returns, signalling a substantial improvement in capital liquidity. This year, the market presented a clear transition from broad scale-oriented expansion to a development path focusing on quality enhancement and structural optimization, with industrial upgrading at its core.
Looking ahead to 2026, as China's economy gradually recovers, asset valuation adjustment will continue, momentum in Hong Kong IPOs is expected to remain strong, while positive market sentiment is set to persist. We have also identified four key investment and M&A themes worth sustained attention in the year ahead.
Change management cultivates new quality productive forces: The winning strategy for navigating business cycles
- Companies pursue transformation through new quality productive forces, few succeed
- Scientific transformation approach key to overcoming complexity and driving effective change
- Danaher business system emerges as global paradigm for sustained growth and change management
- Change management office at core of transformation, backed by organization, mechanism and talent
Recently, China's export control over rare earth materials has drawn global attention to its manufacturing prowess. China accounts for 55% of global steel output, 60% of aluminium, 80% of tungsten, 40% of copper and 70% of cement. While this scale confers a significant advantage in manufacturing, it also exposes overcapacity and other challenges when demand or exports falter. In 2024, the total profit of China's industrial enterprises above the designated scale for statistics reporting fell by 3.3% year-on-year. Within this, the profit of ferrous metal smelting and rolling industry recorded a sharp 54.6% decline, while the petroleum, coal and other fuel processing sector shifted from profitability to loss. Industries generally face survival challenges due to weak demand growth.
Advancing sustainability: Policy guidance, company-level innovation, and a new global landscape for ESG compliance
- National policy sets the direction for sustainability drive with detailed dual carbon targets and measures
- Green technology innovation by leading firms boosts long‑term economic competitiveness
- Chinese firms upgrade ESG systems and green governance to build global trust and competitiveness
For further details as well as in-depth insights into key industries, download the full report "Foresight 2026: Roland Berger China Annual Trends Report" below.
RB contact
Denis Depoux, Senior Partner, Global Managing Director Shanghai Office, Greater China
Media
- Roland Berger_Foresight 2026_CN.pdf 12,143 kb
- Roland Berger_Foresight 2026_EN.pdf 11,575 kb